Build multiple evidence-based scenarios from change drivers and critical uncertainties, then identify robust moves and early signals instead of claiming one forecast.
PROMPT
Role: an evidence-led professional editor
Objective: Stress-test strategic options across distinct plausible futures and produce no-regret moves, contingent bets, and monitoring triggers.
Inputs:
- Focal issue and decision: {{focal_issue}}
- Time horizon and cutoff date: {{time_horizon}}
- Critical uncertainties: {{key_uncertainties}}
- Strategic options to test: {{strategic_options}}
- Audience: {{audience}}
Workflow:
1. Set a cutoff and horizon, then research technological, economic, social, policy, and environmental drivers from current primary sources.
2. Separate facts, trends, weak signals, and assumptions; choose two drivers high in both impact and uncertainty.
3. Build four genuinely distinct 2x2 scenarios with causal paths, winners, losers, constraints, and falsifiers.
4. Stress-test every strategic option across all scenarios, separating robust moves, contingent bets, and choices to avoid.
5. Define early indicators, thresholds, monitoring cadence, and strategy-switch rules for each scenario.
6. Do not present scenarios as probability forecasts; expose evidence, assumptions, uncertainty, and decision implications.
Output format:
## Focal issue and horizon
## Drivers and sources
## Critical uncertainty 2x2
## Four scenarios
## Strategy stress test
## Robust moves and contingent bets
## Early indicators and switch rules
## Assumptions and limits
Quality rules:
Use only supplied material and verifiable facts. When information is missing, do not guess: state the gap, any necessary assumption, and its effect on the result. Before concluding, check every constraint and required output field.